Appendix - Table of Contents
- Appendix - Chapter 1: Facing Reality
- Appendix - Chapter 3: Powering the Future
- Appendix - Chapter 4: Harnessing the Heat of the Earth
- Appendix - Chapter 5: The Hydrogen Revolution
Appendix for Chapter 1
Appendix 1A - Wildfire Trends in Canada: Annual Area Burned by Decade (1991–2024)
| Date Range | Area Burned (ha) | Avg Burned per Year (ha) | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 - 1990 | 19,586,010 (est.) | 1,958,601 | - |
| 1991 - 2000 | 27,471,497 | 2,747,150 | +40.3% |
| 2001 - 2010 | 19,941,053 | 1,994,105 | -27.4% |
| 2011 - 2020 | 26,173,971 | 2,617,397 | +31.3% |
| 2021 - 2024 | 28,239,255 | 7,059,813.75 | +169.7% |
* Sources: National Forestry Database, Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, Canadian National Fire Database
* Years 1981 and 1982 are estimates due to the data only being available in graph form.
Key Takeaways from Wildfire Trends in Canada (1991–2024)
Wildfires in Canada have increased significantly over the past three decades, with an unprecedented surge in the 2020s.
- Dramatic Increase: The average area burned per year in the 2020s is more than 2.7 times higher than the previous decade.
- Steady Trends Until 2020: Between 1991 and 2020, burned areas fluctuated, but the recent surge marks a sharp departure from past trends.
- Over 250% Growth: The annual burned area jumped from 2.6 million ha (2011–2020) to over 7 million ha (2021–2024).
- Climate Change Factor: The trend aligns with climate models predicting hotter, drier conditions and worsening fire seasons.
- Potential Record-Breaking Decade: With only four years of data, the 2020s have already surpassed past decades in total burned area.
Appendix for Chapter 3
Appendix 3A - Energy Calculations for Solar in Alberta:
Estimating Alberta's Electricity Demand
Key Assumptions:- Annual electricity consumption per capita (2020): 17.9 megawatt-hours (MWh)
- Alberta population (2019): 4.371 million
- Total demand: 4.371 million × 17.9 MWh = 78,240,900 MWh/year (~78,000 GWh/year)
- Required generating capacity: 78,240,900 MWh ÷ 8,760 hours/year = 8,932 megawatts (~9 gigawatts)
Solar Capacity Needed to Meet Demand
Key Assumptions:- Average capacity factor for solar in Alberta: 20%
- For every 1 MW of installed capacity, only 0.2 MW is produced due to night hours and weather.
- Existing renewable contribution: 15% of Alberta’s grid is already powered by renewables
- Remaining demand: 78,240,900 MWh - 15% from renewables = 66,504,765 MWh from fossil fuels
- Generating capacity needed: 66,504,765 MWh ÷ 8,760 hours/year = 7,592 MW
- Solar capacity required: 7,592 MW ÷ 0.2 (capacity factor) = 37,960 MW
- To put this in perspective, Alberta's total installed capacity in 2023 was 19,004 MW
Land Needed for Solar
With Alberta's solar capacity factor at 20%, we would need to install about five times the solar capacity to generate and store enough energy for non-sunny periods.
Key Assumptions:- Utility-scale solar farms require about 30-40 acres per 5 MW installation
- 40 acres = 16 hectares, so ~3 hectares are needed per MW
- With 5x capacity needed to ensure storage, we’d need 15 hectares per MW
- 15 hectares/MW × 7,592 MW = 113,880 hectares
Key Takeaway
- Calgary's land area: 82,500 hectares (825 km²)
- Alberta's land area: 63.5 million hectares (~0.18% of Alberta's land would be needed for solar)
To replace fossil fuels with solar and meet Alberta’s electricity needs, we’d need to dedicate a land area 27.5% larger than the entire city of Calgary—around 0.18% of Alberta's total land area—exclusively for solar power production. While Alberta’s vast land area makes this achievable, smaller countries with less space may struggle to meet their energy needs through solar alone, highlighting the importance of a diversified energy mix that includes nuclear and other low-carbon options.
Appendix for Chapter 4
Appendix 4A - Comparing fossil fuel emissions to geothermal:
| Energy Source | CO2 Emissions (kg per Million Btu) |
|---|---|
| Coal (All types) | 95.99 |
| Natural gas | 52.91 |
| Geothermal (steam) | 11.81 |
| Geothermal (binary cycle) | 0 |
* Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Appendix 4B - Power Plant Cost Estimates Per Kilowatt (2021 Data):
| Power Plant Type | Cost (USD per kW) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ultra Supercritical Coal (USC) | $4,074 | |
| USC with 90% CCS | $6,495 | |
| Natural Gas Combined Cycle (Single Shaft) | $1,201 | |
| Natural Gas Combined Cycle with 90% CCS | $2,736 | |
| Nuclear—Light Water Reactor | $6,695 | |
| Nuclear—Small Modular Reactor | $6,861 | |
| Onshore Wind | $1,718 | Price dropped by 27% from 2013 to 2021 |
| Solar Photovoltaic with Tracking | $1,327 | Price dropped by 70% from 2013 to 2021 |
| Solar PV with Storage | $1,748 | |
| Geothermal | $3,076 | |
| Conventional Hydroelectric | $3,083 |
* Source: EIA Assumptions 2021
Appendix 4C - Fuel Cost Comparison for Power Generation (2023):
This table compares the costs of power generation for fossil steam and nuclear energy, highlighting the impact of operating at full vs. partial capacity. Nuclear typically runs at around 92% capacity year round. Natural Gas (Fossil Steam) typically operates at around 54% capacity.
| Fuel Type | Cost per MWh | Annual Cost per MW (100% Capacity) | Annual Cost for 1000 MW (54% Capacity) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fossil Steam | $30.58 | $267,880 | $145 million |
| Nuclear | $6.12 | $53,611 | $29 million |
* Source: EIA Annual Electric Power Data (Mills per Kilowatt-hour)
Conversion Information:
- 1 mill = 1/1,000 of a U.S. dollar = 1/10 of a cent
- Mills per killowatt-hour is equivalent to dollars per megawatt-hour
- Hours in a year = 365 days x 24 hours = 8,760 hours
- To calculate annual cost per MW, multiple 8,760 hours times the cost per megawatt
Key Takeaways:
- 1000 MW Fossil Steam Facility (54% capacity): $145 million/year
- Natural Gas fuel cost over 30 year facility lifespan (at 54% capacity): $4.34 billion
- Nuclear fuel cost over 30 year facility lifespan (at 54% capacity): $868.5 million (20% of the cost of natural gas)
Appendix 4D - Cost Estimations of Power Plants (2021):
| Plant Type | Capacity Factor (%) | Capital Cost ($/MWh) | LCOE ($/MWh) | Value-Cost Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coal | 85 | $52.11 | $82.61 | 0.47 |
| Natural Gas (Combined Cycle) no CCS | 87 | $9.36 | $39.94 | 0.99 |
| Advanced Nuclear | 90 | $60.71 | $88.24 | 0.47 |
| Geothermal | 90 | $22.04 | $39.82 | 1.20 |
| Wind (Onshore) | 41 | $29.90 | $40.23 | 0.88 |
| Solar (Standalone) | 29 | $26.60 | $36.49 | 0.98 |
| Hydroelectric | 54 | $46.58 | $64.27 | 0.60 |
* Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Understanding The Data
The data assumes a standard operational lifetime of 30 years for most plant types. In reality, the actual lifespan depends on various factors, including the technology used. For example, nuclear power plants tend to operate for 60 years or more, which significantly improves their value-cost ratio.
- Capacity Factor: The percentage of maximum potential output that a plant typically achieves over a year.
- Capital Cost: The cost of building the plant, amortized over its operational life.
- LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity): The average cost to produce electricity, including capital, operating, and fuel costs.
- Value-Cost Ratio: The average economic value of the energy relative to its cost. A ratio above 1.0 indicates cost-effectiveness.
Appendix 4E: Calculating the Costs and Revenue Potential for Generating Enough Geothermal Energy to Power All 1.7 Million Albertan Homes
This figure outlines the estimated construction, operating, and revenue potential for a geothermal energy facility sufficient to power Alberta’s 1.7 million homes.
| Category | Details | Values |
|---|---|---|
| Energy Requirements | Energy requirement per home | 7,200 kWh |
| Energy requirement to power 1.7m homes | 12,240,000,000 kWh | |
| Construction Costs | Required Capacity | 1,553 MW (at 90% capacity) |
| Capital Cost per MW | $5,250,000 CAD (2023 $) | |
| Total Capital Cost | $8.15 billion CAD | |
| Operating & Maintenance Costs | Annual O&M Cost per MWh | $24 CAD (17.78 USD) |
| Total Annual O&M Cost | $293.76 million CAD | |
| O&M Cost over 30 years | $8.81 billion CAD | |
| Loan Repayment | Total Interest (4% rate, 30 years) | $5.86 billion CAD |
| Total Loan Repayment | $14.01 billion CAD | |
| Annual Loan Repayment (over 30 years) | $466.91 million CAD | |
| Revenue & Profit | Annual Revenue (at $0.166/kWh) | $2.03 billion CAD |
| Gross Annual Profit (Revenue - O&M) | $1.736 billion CAD | |
| Taxes (27%) | $468.78 million CAD | |
| Net Annual Profit (After Taxes) | $1.267 billion CAD | |
| Net Annual Profit after Loan Repayment | $800.1 million CAD |
* Sources: Clean Energy BC, EIA Electricity Generation
Appendix for Chapter 5
Appendix 5A – Calculating the Cost of Green Hydrogen
- Electrolysis energy input: 50 kWh per kg of hydrogen
- Solar capacity factor: 1 MW × 14% capacity = 140 kW average output
- Daily output: 140 kW × 24 hrs = 3,360 kWh/day → 67.2 kg H₂/day
- Capital cost: $5 million CAD (electrolyzer, solar, compression, storage, dispensing)
- Levelized cost: $5M ÷ 25 years ÷ 365 days ÷ 67.2 kg = $8.15/kg
- Vehicle usage: Toyota Mirai = 5.6 kg tank → $45.64
- Markup (23%): +$10.50 = $56.14 (5% loan interest, 5% operating & maintenance, 13% profit margin)
- Taxes (12%): +$6.73 = $62.87 final price per tank
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9 - Part 1
Canadian Carbon Tax Annual Revenue Projections
| Year | Revenue ($CAD) | Tax Rate ($/tonne) | Annual $ Increase | Annual % Increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $11,020,000,000 | $50 | $15 | - |
| 2023 | $14,326,000,000 | $65 | $15 | 30.00% |
| 2024 | $17,632,000,000 | $80 | $15 | 23.08% |
| 2025 | $20,938,000,000 | $95 | $15 | 18.75% |
| 2026 | $24,244,000,000 | $110 | $15 | 15.79% |
| 2027 | $27,550,000,000 | $125 | $15 | 13.64% |
| 2028 | $30,856,000,000 | $140 | $15 | 12.00% |
| 2029 | $34,162,000,000 | $155 | $15 | 10.71% |
| 2030 | $37,468,000,000 | $170 | - | 9.68% |
| Total | $218,196,000,000 | - | - | - |
Chapter 9 - Part 2
Chapter 9 - Part 3
Figure XX - O&M Cost Comparison for Geothermal and SMR Nuclear Plants (2021):
This table compares the operating and maintenance (O&M) costs for a 1,000 MW geothermal plant and a 1,000 MW small modular reactor (SMR) nuclear plant. The calculations include variable and fixed costs and highlight the impact of operating at 90% capacity, which is typical for both plant types.
| Plant Type | Variable O&M Costs ($) | Fixed O&M Costs ($) | Total O&M Costs (100% Capacity) | Total O&M Costs (90% Capacity) | O&M Cost per MWh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geothermal (1,000 MW) | $10,161,600 | $143,220,000 | $153,381,600 | $152,365,440 | $17.39 |
| SMR Nuclear (1,000 MW) | $26,280,000 | $95,000,000 | $121,280,000 | $118,652,000 | $13.54 |
* Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (AEO2020)
Calculation Details:
- Geothermal Variable O&M Costs: $1.16/MWh x 8,760,000 MWh/year (100% capacity) = $10,161,600/year
- SMR Variable O&M Costs: $3.00/MWh x 8,760,000 MWh/year (100% capacity) = $26,280,000/year
- Fixed O&M Costs: Per kW-year costs multiplied by plant capacity
- Geothermal: $128.54/kW-year x 1,000,000 kW = $143,220,000
- SMR: $95.00/kW-year x 1,000,000 kW = $95,000,000
- Adjusted for 90% Capacity: Multiply totals by 0.90 to reflect realistic operation rates.
- Annual Energy Output: 1,000 MW x 8,760 hours/year = 8,760,000 MWh/year
Key Takeaways:
- At 90% capacity, geothermal O&M costs are approximately $152.37 million/year, while SMR nuclear is $118.65 million/year.
- SMR nuclear has a lower O&M cost per megawatt-hour ($13.54) than geothermal ($17.39), but geothermal plants do not require fuel and produce no waste.